July 3, 2008

Bad news for AP and the Democrats.

Obama's finding it hard to ignore. Expect a 180 on Iraq within the next couple of weeks.

New Iraq report: 15 of 18 benchmarks satisfactory

WASHINGTON (AP) - No matter who is elected president in November, his foreign policy team will have to deal with one of the most frustrating realities in Iraq: the slow pace with which the government in Baghdad operates.

Iraq's political and military success is considered vital to U.S. interests, whether troops stay or go. And while the Iraqi government has made measurable progress in recent months, the pace at which it's done so has been achingly slow.

The White House sees the progress in a particularly positive light, declaring in a new assessment to Congress that Iraq's efforts on 15 of 18 benchmarks are "satisfactory"—almost twice of what it determined to be the case a year ago. The May 2008 report card, obtained by the Associated Press, determines that only two of the benchmarks—enacting and implementing laws to disarm militias and distribute oil revenues—are unsatisfactory.

As I said, I've been reading Feith's "War and Decision"...

Hindsight is always 20-20. There were a number of mistakes made in the early days after Saddam's fall - one of the biggest being installing Paul Bremer into the position of controlling the country. He had a very poor view of the Iraqis, and saw no reason to attempt a quick transfer of power to a provisional government. I believe (and I'll probaby get his book to better determine whether I'm right) that he went in with the intention of making his job as pretty much 'king' of Iraq a long-term one. The President wanted a fast transfer - within a couple of months. Bremer dragged it out to about 14.

Sigh. Nothing says 'liberation' like a quick handover of power to the locals. Nothing says 'occupation' like a slow one. I'd estimate that we'd be out of Iraq at this point if Bush's original plans hadn't been ignored by the State Department...

But, as I said, that's 20-20 hindsight.

We're past the tipping point on Iraq, I think. Barring a suicidal nose-dive by the Democrats or Iran, it's going to make it as a modern, secular state. The Iraqi people have been to the edge of the abyss - and have stepped firmly back.

J.

July 2, 2008

Ten Thousand Years...

Makes you wonder, doesn't it?

Internet Archive: Details: The book of record of the time capsule of cupaloy, deemed capable of resisting the effects of time for five thousand years, preserving an account of universal achievements, embedded in the grounds of the New York World's fair, 1939

Each age considers itself the pinnacle &final triumph above all eras that have gone before. In our time many believe that the human race has reached the ultimate in material and social development ; others, that humanity shall march onward to achievements splendid beyond the imagination of this day, to new worlds of human wealth, power, life, and happiness. We choose, with the latter, to believe that men will solve the problems of the world, that the human race will triumph over its limitations and its adversities, that the future will be glorious.

TO THE PEOPLE OF THAT FUTURE
WE LEAVE THIS LEGACY
Would that our 'leaders' had such confidence now...

J.

Figures the Chinese would go this route...

Next Big Future: World's First Commercial High Temperature Nuclear Reactor starts construction in China in 2009
When you consider their current pollution problems from coal and oil, it REALLY makes sense to go nuclear.

J.

July 1, 2008

Okay, that's a bit... extreme.

Bored Space - $6 Million Kipnis Home Theater

I'd NEVER be able to fit that into the basement... even if we jacked the house up.

J.


IF you like playing with your camera...

You might want to see what you can do with the naked info...

Why You Should be Shooting RAW | Gadget Lab from Wired.com

There’s some confusion as to what the RAW photo format actually is, and, like any good photographic fact, it can incite forum flame wars as quickly as the mention of the words Leica and Bokeh in the same sentence. Although it comes in various flavors -- seemingly one for every different camera model -- RAW is essentially the raw data from the camera’s sensor, hence the name.

If your camera has a RAW setting, you should be using it, no excuses. Here’s why...

Have fun!

J.

Score One for the Luddites.

Judge douses new coal plants | ajc.com

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Published on: 07/01/08

Environmentalists nationwide are celebrating Monday's Fulton County Superior Court decision they say will make it harder —- if not impossible —- to build new coal plants.

Judge Thelma Wyatt Cummings Moore's ruling is the first to anchor coal-fired power plants to global warming.

In her 19-page order, Moore invalidated a state permit issued last year for a proposed coal plant in southwest Georgia and instructed the state Environmental Protection Division to limit carbon dioxide emissions in any new permit for the plant.

"There is no question that CO2 is 'subject to regulation under the [federal Clean Air] Act,'" Moore wrote.

Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas that an international panel of scientists has said contributes to global warming by trapping the heat of the sun.

"We think this is the beginning of the end of conventional coal-fired power plants, because of the enormity of their emissions," said Bruce Nilles, director of the Sierra Club's national campaign against coal.

There's going to come a point where people aren't going to look kindly on environmentalism, or those who believe in NIMBY or BANANA philosophies. Who will get very tired of the endless legal manuvering to block any new plants, no matter how clean they are.

When the founder of Greenpeace starts talking about how we should fast-track nuclear power, do the environmental zealots listen?

Going Nuclear

In the early 1970s when I helped found Greenpeace, I believed that nuclear energy was synonymous with nuclear holocaust, as did most of my compatriots. That's the conviction that inspired Greenpeace's first voyage up the spectacular rocky northwest coast to protest the testing of U.S. hydrogen bombs in Alaska's Aleutian Islands. Thirty years on, my views have changed, and the rest of the environmental movement needs to update its views, too, because nuclear energy may just be the energy source that can save our planet from another possible disaster: catastrophic climate change.

And GreenPeace's resulting response... well, you read it. Isn't it nice to see a good, thoughtful rebuttal of Mr. Moore's stance?

Well, you won't find it there, will ya?

How about Gwyneth Cravens? She was an anti-nucelar activist - she worked to get the Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant on Long Island shut down. Now she wants to go nuclear - and actually had a chance to THINK about her stance while talking with an engineer. Now she has a book out about her conversion.

Ah, heresy is an interesting concept in the environmental community...

But we're going to have to do something. Solar's being blocked, and now coal. Better enjoy this electricity stuff while you can - it might be getting scarce sooner than you think.

J.

June 30, 2008

Okay, we're how long into the Oil Crunch of 2008?

And what are our elected officials doing?

Oh, they're being VERY productive.

They're having hearings where they lambast the oil producers.

They're having hearings where they try to figure out how much more to tax those who produce oil.

They're having hearings trying to figure out how to curb the speculative activity in the oil futures market.

They're....

Oh, why am I trying to fool you? You KNOW they're doing nothing at all about the problem, yet trying like anything to LOOK like they're doing something constructive.

But nothing they're doing is going to put even one more gallon of oil into a market that's getting tighter by the day.

So, I've got a question to ask you, oh perceptive and thoughtful reader...

What would it take to get you to actively avoid doing something when a problem like a lack of oil hits? When we have massive, untapped reservers? When there are clean and safe ways to extract it? When NOT having it available could well mean a recession or possibly a depression due to the impact on the economy of high oil prices?

What would it take for you to block alternative energy, like the US government is doing on solar, and Sen. Salazar did on oil shale? Who would have to pay you, and how much? Or would simple party ideology be sufficient for you to crowbar the country into a funk?

I'm wondering, because it sure seems like someone's going to profit big-time if the country crashes and the folks pushing the hardest for it - IMHO - seem to stand to gain the most. Oh, probably not financially - but then, what real need do they have for money?

Who profits from having the economy slow down, possibly crash? Who profits from consumer uncertainty? Who profits from an insecure electorate?

Who, indeed?

J.

June 29, 2008

Of course.

US halts solar energy projects over environment fears - Telegraph

The US government is putting a hold on new solar energy projects on public land for two years so it can study the environmental impact of sun-driven plants.

The Bureau of Land Management says the moratorium on solar proposals is needed to determine how a new generation of large-scale projects could affect plants and wildlife on the land it manages.

Only the highest environmental motives...

You know, there's times I could almost think it's a conspiracy to drag us back to the 1400s...

J.

June 27, 2008

Power Line says it well...

Power Line: "Obama Clarifies Position..."

Is that becoming a familiar headline, or what? I hope someone is compiling them all. Today, it was the Supreme Court's gun decision: "Obama clarifies position on D.C. gun ban":

Presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama Thursday sought to clarify his position on a Supreme Court ruling striking down a Washington gun ban. ***
When asked about his reaction, Obama disputed the one outlined earlier by his campaign, ABC News reported.

When a reporter noted in November that the District's handgun law was constitutional, Obama distanced himself from the campaign, the network reported.

"I don't know what my aide said but I've been very consistent, I teach constitutional law," Obama said. "What I said was that I believe Second Amendment as being an individual right and have said that consistently. I also think that individual right is constrained by the rights of the community to maintain issues with public safety. I don't think those two principles are contradictory and in fact what I've been saying consistently is what the Supreme Court essentially said today."

Which is a ludicrous claim, even by Obama's standards. Here's an idea, though: maybe as part of this year's campaign, we could have a debate between Obama and his campaign staff.
Maybe we could just have Obama debate himself?

J.

Gimme POWER!!!!!

One of the things our civilization needs desperately is electricity. There's a massive, MASSIVE electrical infrastructure in the US making sure the lights stay on 24/7/365, barring catastrophic storms... and even then, unless all lines into an area are down, the the chances are the lights will stay on anyway. In other countries, things are much the same... until you get to a technological level where the infrastructure for electricity is more valuable than the perceived good of a steady electricial supply, or there's simply not enough money to build the infrastructure needed to get power to the people.

One thing that's apparent, though - in this day and age, more and more power is needed. You don't get it from simply flipping a switch or sticking a plug in a socket. Electricity (at anything above the household level) isn't something that can be stored like hydropower. It's generated as it's needed - and you HAVE to have sufficient generating capacity to meet the need or you get brownouts or blackouts. (See California for an example of need and capacity not even coming close.)

So guess what has been fought tooth and nail by the environuts for the last few decades? Yep - you guessed it - power plants. (Remarkable what you can find on Google when you put in "fighting new power plants", isn't it?)

We haven't been adding capacity worldwide, or here in the US. The reasons are numerous - too expensive, too polluting, too 'long term'. I must confess the 'long term' argument makes no sense whatever to me - if you need power now, you should have started building five years ago. That applies across all spectrums of the energy field. New, additional capacity requires planning for the future. Planning beyond the current election cycle, beyond the next, beyond the next... yet all too often it would seem that the attempt to create new energy capacity gets mired down in political infighting. The other reasons? Oh, they're valid - but we've come a hell of a long way from the pollution sources of the 40's-70's - so ecological reasons aside, the only other real reason is financial. It'll take years, decades even before the plant pays for itself... but most companies looking to build a power plant have the pockets deep enough so that's not a problem. They plan for the long-term, after all.

But when there's not enough electricity - what's the option?

You saw it in California. Decades of letting everyone ELSE build power plants left them woefully unprepared when high demand hit the last few summers. Pleas were issued for reduced usage, there were rolling black and brownouts - and sky-high electricity prices. (And yes, there was a lot of 'let's charge what the market will bear' going on... that didn't help one bit.)

And you'd think that California would fast-track construction of additional capacity so it wouldn't happen again, right?

Um, not so much. Go down to "approved - under construction" - and there's 4 projects that should be on-line in the next year or two - and one approved but not started.

If you go down a bit further, to projects "Approved / Not Under Construction" - you'll see 15 projects, one that's being relocated and 14 on hold.

It's clear they're worried about power - but the process is much more important than actual results. In this case - power generation.

It's a funny thing about a commodity - when it's something essential, people are willing to pay more for it when there are shortages.

You'll hear all sorts of calls for conservation - but don't you actually have to have something to conserve in the first place?

So, after all this meandering, I get to the point.

I think we're about to see a real, realistic breakthrough in solar power generation in the next year or so, that'll really help out during peak summer electrical loading.

First, there's the SunRgi system. I'll admit to being a trifle skeptical of this effort - because it looks like what they're doing (based on the website) is taking a fresnel lens and using it to concentrate light on the solar cell. Apparently they've got a process which produces 37% efficient conversion of light to electricity - which is pretty darn impressive. The drawback is, it would seem like each solar cell gets about a kilowatt of energy poured into it to do this. So they're having to do some SERIOUS cooling on the back end to keep it from melting...

Here's an article from USAToday on it, with the rather amusing line:

"Moving from the lab to the market in two years is typically not what happens," says Stow Walker of Cambridge Energy Research Associates. Yet, he adds, the semiconductor market "moves much more quickly than power technologies."
Indeed it does.

So - what's not to like about this? Well, I'm sure the environmentalists will find something.

Next up is an article from the EE Times -

NETANYA, Israel — Scientists at the University of Tel Aviv in Israel claim they have found a way to construct efficient photovoltaic cells costing at least a hundred times less than conventional silicon based devices, and with similar or better energy conversion efficiency.

The reactive element in the researchers' patent pending device is genetically engineered proteins using photosynthesis for production of electrical energy.

The scientists applied genetic engineering and nanotechnology for the construction of a hybrid nano -- bio, solid state device. According to the researchers, although using photosynthesis for photovoltaic application is not new, their specific technique is the first to enable the production of useful photosynthesis-based photovoltaic cells.

The Israeli team is set to challenge others who are using photosynthesis for photovoltaic cells, including universities such as Cambridge in the U.K., and Stanford, M.I.T, the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, and the Universities of Tennessee and Arizona in the U.S, and several others.

The researchers suggest existing silicon based photovoltaic cells offer low average energy conversion efficiency of 12-14 percent, while their system is capable of efficiencies of about 25 percent.

A dry nanoengineered protein. Generating electricity via photosynthesis, at 25% efficiency, at about $1 a square meter. Well, that should have the Frankenfoods people rising up with pitchforks....

Anyhow, this one's a bit further off - they're looking at "cost effective" production in two to three years.

And I would be remiss if I didn't mention Nanosolar - who's apparently completed work on a 1 gigawatt/year coating facility.

Of course - you'll need something to STORE all that energy in, right?

How about a nanotech Super-Battery, which would seem to be more of an ultra-capacitor than a battery - but it looks like it'd do the job at a fraction of the size and weight of equivalent rechargeables....

Lots of good stuff coming down - it's going to be interesting to see what makes it to market first!

Gimme more power!

J.

June 26, 2008

UN Censors Free Speech.

It's the Crazy Years.

FrontPage Magazine

The war against free speech is advancing rapidly: Associated Press reported Thursday that “Muslim countries have won a battle to prevent Islam from being criticised during debates by the UN Human Rights Council.” Council President Doru-Romulus Costea explained that religious issues can be “very complex, very sensitive and very intense…This council is not prepared to discuss religious matters in depth, consequently we should not do it.” Henceforth only religious scholars would be permitted to broach them.

“While Costea’s ban applies to all religions,” AP explained, “it was prompted by Muslim countries complaining about references to Islam.” The ban came after a heated session on Monday, when the representative of the Association for World Education (AWE), in a joint statement with the International Humanist and Ethical Union, denounced female genital mutilation, the penalty of stoning for adultery and child marriage as sanctioned by Islamic law. Egypt, Pakistan and Iran angrily protested, interrupting the AWE speaker, David Littman, with no less than 16 points of order, and succeeding in getting the Council’s proceedings suspended for over half an hour. In the course of this contentious discussion, the representatives from the Islamic countries made numerous revealing statements – statements that are well worth examining as Islamic nations and organizations call with increasing insistence for restrictions on free speech in the West.


Imran Ahmed Siddiqui, the representative from Pakistan, echoed the ever-echoing refrain of all Islamic apologists in the West, when he complained that Littman’s initiative on genital mutilation, stoning and child marriage amounted to an “out-of-context, selective discussion on the Sharia law.” He asked that Littman not be allowed to speak: “I would therefore request the president to exercise his judgment and authority and request the speaker not to touch issues which have already been debarred from discussion in this Council.” The representative from Slovenia then protested mildly against this attempt to silence Littman: “Any NGO representative,” he reminded Siddiqui, “has the right to make a statement within the merits of the agenda item under discussion. We see the statement being made pertaining within the purview of the agenda item and we don’t see grounds for any restricting censorship in that respect.”


The representative from Egypt thereupon responded: “I would humbly and kindly ask my colleague from Slovenia to reconsider.” He warned: “We will not take this lightly….This is not about NGOs and their participation in the Council. This is about the Sharia law.” Pakistan’s Siddiqui added: “I would like to state again that this is not the forum to discuss religious sensitivity.” Why not? Again sounding notes that are increasingly familiar in any discussion of the elements of Islam that jihadists and Sharia supremacists use to justify oppression, Siddiqui explained: “It will amount to spreading hatred against certain members of the Council. I mean, it has happened before also that selective discussions were raised in the Council to demonize a particular group.” He addressed Costea: “So we would again request you to please use your authority to bar any such discussion again, at the Council.”

So you can't even talk about shari'a law, otherwise you're demonizing a particular group?

Guess that really tells you a lot about shari'a, doesn't it?

With this decision, the UN Human Rights Council has shown there is no concern at all within the UNHRC for the rights of humans - instead, the rights of a particular religion trump all others.

Somehow, I don't think this is what they had in mind back when the UN was first chartered...

J.

June 24, 2008

Playing games.

You ever wonder if our politicians have played games like Civilization IV? Where they have to make the right decisions at the right time, and allocate resources to meet the needs of their population AND progress? (Or even something like Planet Defender?)

I'm thinking that they haven't.

One of the things you've GOT to do in games like that is push research forward. In Planet Defender, for example, you've got to put money into economic growth, robotics (though that one's not of much real utility in most cases), nuclear fusion, 'advanced energy', and the ever-useful 'planetary shield'.

If you do not put money into research on these things, you will lose the game. (Aliens win, everyone dies. Oh, the embarassment.) But after you play a few rounds, and watch your population get killed off, you begin to understand where your priorities should be. Yes, you could build and upgrade lots of bunkers for your population to hide in - but if you don't destroy the ships shooting at the bunkers, you're going to lose the game when your population dies. If you don't boost your economy, you don't have money to research and advance your weaponry. If you don't have enough weapons at the proper time, your population is going to be killed. You have to find a balance, but you have to grow your population so you'll have the money to play the game.

If you look at the global oil situation as a game - we're losing big-time. But that's making the assumption that a 'win' state is where there's enough oil to go around at a price that's affordable, OR enough available so we can bootstrap ourselves up into the next level of energy production. (Figure the levels are roughly defined by how concentrated and useful the power is - you'd start off with wood fires, then eventually build windmills and waterwheels. Coal would be discovered, and with that the Industrial Age begins. Electricity and electric lighting becomes widely available to the population, and about the same time gasoline and the IC engine become popular. Solar power and nuclear energy is then theorized, but sit on a back burner until both techology needed to exploit it and a pressing need for it comes along. Then the hard stuff - cold fusion, antimatter, zero-point energy...)

Each level needs to have exploited the previous one, and have a technological understanding of the science necessesary to advance. For example - it wouldn't have been possible to develop atomic power during WW1 - the technology and scientific knowledge base simply wasn't there, and no amount of money could have created it and gotten it to a point where a nuke could be created prior to 1918. (Or even 1940...) The only reason we developed it at all was for military purposes, and power generation was pretty far down on the list of spinoffs from the effort. For example, Nanosolar wouldn't have been able to develop their ideas without a whole lot of very expensive R&D being done in a whole lot of other fields - but that R&D was VITAL to their efforts.

To put it another way, you need to make the tools to make the tools to make the tools to make the tools... repeat until you have the item you want.

But what if the desired 'win' state by the major players in our little game ISN'T a scenario where there's enough energy for all? If getting a 'win' means gaining autocratic power over a population and deciding who gets how much, as opposed to "there being enough enough for that population, and more besides"?

I'm beginning to wonder, watching the maneuvering in Washington, whether that's what they're trying to grab. I'm not seeing any publicized attempts to SOLVE the problem by government agencies. Instead - what are the proffered solutions?

And what sort of 'win' will it be if those solutions are implemented?

The time we have left to exploit hydrocarbons as an energy source is going to be ending - unless we either ramp up exploration and exploit areas and items that are currently politically off-limits, or do a serious, serious cutback on our usage of the stuff. That's going to blow the economy, which will make developing the alternatives that are becoming visable much, much more difficult - if not impossible.

You have to exploit what you can when you can - or you lose the game. And in this game we're all playing, the stakes are a technological civilization. I don't really think we want to lose - but we won't win by refusing to play the game.

J.

They've moved.

Belmont Club is over on Pajamas media now - with the same good stuff.

Belmont Club サ The smile remains is an interesting little note - apparently there is little to no news from Iraq any more because the reality doesn't fit the narrative the MSM's been pushing.

Reconciliation's happening, there's no 'civil war', it's on the verge of becoming a regular country - probably more stable than others in the region.

The worst thing? Iraq's going to be almost off the table in the '08 election. Instead, it'll be the economy. And heaven knows where THAT will be in November...

J.

I'm going through "War And Decision" -

And I'm not surprised that it's been ignored by the NYTimes.

Power Line: Times reporter's story on "War and Decision" finally sees light of day. . .in a different paper

It's a good read - rather voluminous, yet concise in laying out the reasoning behind a lot of what's happened in the last 7 years. It's not told with any detectable ideological slant, it's just a recounting of what and why.

But it's not surprising the NYTimes ignored it. There's not much there they could use to smear Bush - and a lot of stuff that wouldn't fit the current narrative.

J.

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